41 billion missing IoT devices: the biggest false forecast in the history of IT?

17. January 2020 0 By Horst Buchwald

41 billion missing IoT devices: the biggest false forecast in the history of IT?

New York, January 17, 2020

Totally overrated! And that’s 41 billion devices connected to the Internet. Caused by Ericsson and Cisco. This is probably the biggest miscalculation in the history of IT that Eseye, a leader in ubiquitous global IoT connectivity, has uncovered.

This is what happened: In 2010 Ericsson predicted that 50 billion devices would be connected by 2020, a prediction confirmed by Cisco. But despite the enthusiasm for IoT, the true number is now closer to 9 billion, according to current estimates, many of which are mobile phones. Eseye has subsequently identified six key challenges that IoT must address in 2020 if it is to achieve its potential.

It is now clear that successful IoT deployments are much more difficult than previously thought and that significant complexities have been glossed over. This is confirmed by recent research by Cisco Systems, which has found that more than 75% of IoT implementations fail.

Most of the damage occurs before the equipment is up and running. Microsoft estimates that 30% of IoT projects fail at the Proof of Concept (PoC) stage, while eight out of ten IoT projects fail before they even start, Gartner said.

From hardware design and testing, connectivity and data management to global technical support, there are many obstacles to overcome. Nick Earle, CEO of Eseye, said: “41 billion missing IoT devices is a monumental miscalculation and probably one of the biggest failures in the history of IT forecasting! But the two questions that need to be asked now are why this happened and what can be done to correct it? In our opinion, the why is mainly due to the fact that companies underestimate the complexity of IoT implementations”.

The complexity associated with developing specialized IoT device hardware, access to global connectivity and the ability to effectively and efficiently manage large amounts of data is only part of that complexity. Gartner recognized this when it predicted in 2018 that 75% of IoT projects would take twice as long. Eliminating the complexity and the barriers to developing and deploying IoT will gain greater acceptance worldwide. “We predict that 2020 will be the year in which global IoT deployment will begin, provided that our six key challenges for the success of IoT in 2020 are addressed”.

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