Goldman Sachs:AI already handles 25% of work tasks in developed countries13. November 2023
Over the weekend, the ki – news editorial team received a briefing from Goldman Sachs. The importance that the bank analysts give to Ki – we quickly agreed – should not remain hidden from our readers.
Goldman Sachs:AI already handles 25% of work tasks in developed countries
New York, November 13, 2023
The starting point for the forecast for income growth is two assumptions: inflation will continue to cool and the labor market will prove to be robust. The interest rate increases would have fulfilled their role, allowing the manufacturing sector to recover. If the Fed sees an economic downturn, it can counteract it by cutting interest rates. For Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Research, this is “an important insurance policy against a recession.”
Goldman Sachs predicts global GDP will grow by 2.6%. This means that the bank is several points more optimistic than Bloomberg analysts, who assume 2.1%. Finally, the gold men emphasized: US growth will once again exceed that of the industrialized countries.
And what is the basis for this foresight: The “recognition that ultimately about 25% of work tasks in advanced economies and 10-20% of tasks in emerging economies could be automated.”
The Goldmen estimate a growth boost from AI of 0.4 percentage points in the US, an average of 0.3 percentage points in other industrialized countries and an average of 0.2 percentage points in advanced emerging markets by 2034. For other emerging markets, Goldman Sachs Research predicts a smaller boost from AI, since Automation is likely to take longer to adopt and AI exposure is likely to be lower.
“We expect that this automation will result in labor cost savings and free up workers, some of whom will likely be redeployed to new tasks.”
The ultimate significance of these effects will depend on how powerful AI actually becomes and how it is used.